LANI
(TAPIT-HEAVENLY ROMANCE, by SUNDAY SILENCE)
February 22, 2013
JOCKEY: Yutaka Take
TRAINER: Mikio Matsunaga
Track
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Hanshin
|
9/13/15
|
Maiden
|
4
|
Unknown
|
Unknown
|
Hanshin
|
10/3/15
|
Maiden
|
2
|
Unknown
|
Unknown
|
Kyoto
|
11/22/15
|
Maiden
|
1
|
Unknown
|
Unknown
|
Tokyo
|
11/28/15
|
Cattleya Sho
|
1
|
Unknown
|
Unknown
|
Tokyo
|
2/21/16
|
Hyacinth Stakes
|
5
|
Unknown
|
Unknown
|
Meydan
|
3/26/16
|
UAE Derby (gr.2)
|
1
|
9 ½ furlongs
|
Fast
|
Madison:
Ah, Lani. The Derby invader who continues to give me mixed emotions. Due to the nature of Equibase and the limitations of YouTube, I am unable to report on any of Lani’s races except the UAE Derby. Lani was the calmest horse in the starting gate and was standing almost perfectly still. During the break, Lani stumbled and was almost on his knees. When he corrected himself, he settled nicely at the back of the pack before swinging six horses wide. In the homestretch, Lani looked as though he was finished until two horses began gaining on him. The colt found another gear and was able to finish first. His first work over Churchill, a five furlong breeze, was quite slow and a bit worrying. He refuses to work at all lately, so I’m going to toss him.
Allison:
Lani (Tapit - Heavenly Romance, by Sunday Silence) - It's common knowledge that foreigners haven't fared too well in our Kentucky Derby. Last year Dubai sent over Mubtaahij, a highly regarded colt who wound up eighth. Nevertheless, I believe Lani has a decent chance of bringing the roses home to Japan. Lani, winner of the UAE Derby, certainly adds depth to this year's bunch. He, like Creator, has but three victories, a maiden, and allowance, and the UAE Derby as a three year old. Lani is a stubborn sort of colt with an independent streak that could be interpreted as disobedient or spirited. Lani isn't a spectacular work horse, often becoming distracted and rank during his morning trials. In the afternoon though, Lani turns all focus on winning, and when he wants to win is a difficult opponent. Lani is versatile, though seems to perform best when rated early, giving one big run down the stretch. One thing about Lani is that since we aren't familiar with his defeated opponents, there's no clear measure of how talented he is. Going by pedigree, Lani has boundless promise for long races. Lani's pedigree crosses are similarly matched to Race Day. Lani doesn't exactly seem consistent, which is sometimes concerning. If he's too stubborn to listen to his jockey, he may as well be a low level claimer for the effect it will have. Physically, Lani certainly is a specimen to look at. He's stocky with a lot of muscle, all around a heavier sort of colt. When he runs, he has a sort of aggression that carries him past rivals with an aura of power. I think, given a good trip, Lani could finish in the money, perhaps even winning if he could settle down enough in the mental department.
DESTIN
(GIANT’S CAUSEWAY-DREAM OF SUMMER, by SIBERIAN SUMMER)
April 16, 2013
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher
Trainer
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Belmont
|
10/11/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
1st
|
7 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Gulfstream
|
12/18/25
|
Allowance Optional Claiming
|
2nd
|
1 mile
|
Fast
|
Fair Grounds
|
1/16/16
|
LeComte Stakes (gr.3)
|
4th
|
1 mile 70 yards
|
Fast
|
Tampa Bay
|
2/13/16
|
Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr.3)
|
1st
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Tampa Bay
|
3/12/16
|
Tampa Bay Derby (gr.2)
|
1st
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Madison:
Everything about this horse makes me want to say yes. Both his sire and his dam are multiple graded/group winners. Giant’s Causeway invaded the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2000 and battled Tiznow down the stretch, only to lose by a head. Destin is going into the Kentucky Derby off a nine week layoff. However, to those of you who are worried about that, Super Saver (trained by Pletcher as well) won the Derby coming off a five week layoff. In the Tampa Bay Derby, fans got quite a duel in the homestretch. Outwork and Destin were neck and neck until Destin found an extra gear (or Outwork slowed up) and pulled away from Outwork and the rest of the field. This race was quite impressive visually, minus the slight weaving at the bottom of the stretch. One major downside to this grey colt is his works. He has been working at Palm Beach Downs for the Derby and I would prefer to see at least two works over Churchill.
Allison:
Destin (Giant's Causeway - Dream Of Summer, by Siberian Summer) - It came as a bit of a shock when trainer Todd Pletcher announced that Destin would train up to the Derby off of his Tampa Bay Derby victory, but digging deeper we see the reason why. The speed figures for Destin's TB Derby were quite higher than anticipated, and therefore the connections made the tough call to lay low going into the Derby. Had they run another prep race, they would have risked going to Louisville with a horse who was only fifty percent ready. This way is better, although it's still a risky move considering that the horse might be "too" fresh now. Crazier things have been done to win Derbies, though, and since Todd Pletcher has done it before, I trust his judgment enough to give Destin his props. Out of five starts, Destin has nicked three wins, a second, and a fourth. Not bad considering that these races were run at four different tracks. Already we know Destin is fast, and a good traveler, two promising aspects. Destin too, has only won at a mile and a sixteenth as his longest race. However, there's more foundation from his pedigree to support him handling extra distance. Giant's Causeway is able to produce distance runners, this is already a fact. Turning to his dam, Dream Of Summer, we see she was a stakes winner, winning races up to a mile and a sixteenth, and placing at a mile and an eighth. As a broodmare, her most highly regarded foal is undoubtedly Destin's full brother Creative Cause. Creative Cause won the Best Pal and Norfolk stakes as a two year old, then proceeded to win the San Felipe stakes before placing behind I'll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby. He went on to finish fifth and third in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, respectively, before retirement. While Creative Cause and Destin may share similarities via pedigree, physically they're about as similar as an apple and an orange. Where Creative Cause was a long lean horse, Destin is heavily muscled, with a strong shoulder. While he is still slightly green, which isn't all that alarming given his track record, he is still an interesting prospect. I expect Destin to be finishing in the top five, whether or not he makes it to the winners' circle we will have to wait and see.
WHITMORE
(PLEASANTLY PERFECT-MELODY’S SPIRIT, by SCAT DADDY)
January 23, 2012
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Track
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Churchill
|
11/6/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
1
|
6 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Delta Downs
|
11/21/15
|
Delta Downs Jackpot (gr.3)
|
5
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Muddy
|
Oaklawn
|
1/16/16
|
Allowance Optional Claiming
|
1
|
6 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Oaklawn
|
2/15/16
|
Southwest Stakes (gr.3)
|
2
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Good
|
Oaklawn
|
3/19/16
|
Rebel Stakes (gr.2)
|
2
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Oaklawn
|
4/16/16
|
Arkansas Derby (gr.3)
|
3
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Fast
|
Madison:
I think Whitmore is better than people give him credit for. He is definitely going to be an underdog in the Derby and could end up making quite a good closing run. Pleasantly Perfect won the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Pacific Classic. Melody’s Spirit never started and Whitmore is her first foal. Whitmore gets Victor Espinoza in the Derby and he should benefit from the experience.
Allison:
Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect - Melody's Spirit, by Scat Daddy) The highly regarded Whitmore is being hailed as a Commanding Curve type. That is, he isn't garnering attention to merit his accomplishments and talent. Whitmore has had a decent amount of track experience, finishing fifth in the Delta Downs
Jackpot after winning a MSW. As a newly turned three year old, Whitmore won an allowance race before finishing second in the Southwest and Rebel stakes, and then third in the Arkansas Derby. Whitmore doesn't seem to give up, although he's clearly been second best at times. He's an underdog type with enough foundation as a three year old to give him a solid chance at hitting the board in the Derby. Pleasantly Perfect was an admirable racer, winning the Breeders Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup, and Pacific Classic. As a sire, he notably has had a runner in Rapid Redux, winner of twenty two straight races ranging from five furlongs to a mile and an eighth. Pleasantly Perfect has also sired Nonios, stakes placed at a mile and an eighth. Whitmore's female family is laced with classy horses as well. Whitmore is a quick on his feet kind who doesn't shy away from a fight and has plenty of heart. His big question is class, and how he will handle all of the obstacles that running in the Derby has in store. Luckily enough, he gets Victor Espinoza in the irons, who has won the Derby the past two years.
EXAGGERATOR
(CURLIN-DAWN RAID, by VINDICATION)
February 5, 2013
JOCKEY: Kent Desormeaux
TRAINER: Keith Desormeaux
Track
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Santa Anita
|
6/5/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
5
|
5 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Del Mar
|
7/25/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
1
|
6 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Saratoga
|
8/16/15
|
Saratoga Special Stakes (gr.2)
|
1
|
6 ½ furlongs
|
Fast
|
Keeneland
|
10/3/15
|
Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (gr.1)
|
2
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Muddy
|
Keeneland
|
10/31/15
|
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr.1)
|
4
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Delta Downs
|
11/21/15
|
Delta Downs Jackpot (gr.3)
|
1
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Muddy
|
Santa Anita
|
2/15/16
|
San Vicente Stakes (gr.2)
|
2
|
7 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
3/12/16
|
San Felipe Stakes (gr.2)
|
3
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
4/9/16
|
Santa Anita Derby (gr.1)
|
1
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Sloppy
|
Madison:
Keith Desormeaux has got to be one of the dumbest humans on the planet right now. He wants Exaggerator to be so far back that even the second to last horses kickback won’t touch him. I’m sorry, Keith, but this is the Derby. Why would you even think about having your horse that far back? Anyway, Exaggerator’s Santa Anita Derby was good. I want to know how much of that win was due to the slop. He won the Delta Downs Jackpot in the mud and his only win this year was on a sloppy track. I figure he will finish mid-pack if it doesn’t rain and Kent ignores his brother’s instructions.
Allison:
Exaggerator (Curlin - Dawn Raid, by Vindication) - Exaggerator is probably the single horse I've been watching the longest. Jumping right into it, you see that Exaggerator's early record is all over the board. In his first start, he finished fifth to Nyquist in a MSW, before breaking his maiden next time out. Exaggerator then shipped to Saratoga where he won the Saratoga Special, before a second place in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. Next was a fourth place finish in the Breeders Cup Juvenile before winning the Delta Downs Jackpot in the slop. As a three year old, the Curlin colt debuted in the San Vicente, finishing second behind Nyquist. Electing to stay in California, Exaggerator continued along the circuit, finishing third in the San Felipe to Danzing Candy before his last and most impressive race. In the Santa Anita Derby, Exaggerator dropped well off the pace before launching a rally similar in power to his sire Curlin in the 2007 Breeders Cup Classic. Clearly, Exaggerator appreciates an off track like his sire, but since his San Felipe performance I see that his maturity has greatly increased. Curlin is a well known sire, producing distance lovers Palace Malice and Keen Ice. When crossed with Seattle Slew lined mares, Curlin has produced horses such as Stellar Wind, Moulin De Mougin, Top Billing, and Off The Tracks. Exaggerator's female family is lined with speed, though through Curlin Exaggerator should inherit some distance appreciation. Physically, he looks like a later maturing horse who will appreciate longer races. He's muscular and balanced. Exaggerator has a lot of tenacity and resilience, with speed and an astonishing turn of foot when needed. Versatility is another one of Exaggerator's many pluses. One downside to Exaggerator is that in his wins, it's unknown how well the other horses were performing. Example, for the Santa Anita Derby, many of the field had never contested a sloppy track at SA, so it's not easily decided whether they ran to their best. Despite this, Exaggerator himself seems to be steadily improving both physically and mentally, and with an extremely experienced Derby jockey in Kent Desormeaux, he might be able to pull out a win.
TOM’S READY
(MORE THAN READY-GOODBYE STRANGER, by BROAD BUSH)
February 1, 2013
JOCKEY: Brian J. Hernandez
TRAINER: Dallas Stewart
Track
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Saratoga
|
8/15/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
4
|
5 ½ furlongs
|
Fast
|
Saratoga
|
9/7/15
|
Hopeful Stakes (gr.1)
|
5
|
7 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Churchill
|
9/26/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
1
|
7 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Churchill
|
11/1/15
|
Street Sense Stakes
|
2
|
1 mile
|
Fast
|
Fair Grounds
|
11/28/15
|
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr.1)
|
8
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Sloppy
|
Fair Grounds
|
12/18/15
|
Allowance Optional Claiming
|
2
|
1 mile 70 yards
|
Fast
|
Fair Grounds
|
1/16/16
|
LeComte Stakes (gr.3)
|
2
|
1 mile 70 yards
|
Fast
|
Fair Grounds
|
2/20/16
|
Risen Star Stakes (gr.2)
|
7
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Fair Grounds
|
3/26/16
|
Louisiana Derby (gr.2)
|
2
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Fast
|
Madison:
Tom’s Ready honestly is not any better than his owner’s other colt. Actually, he may be worse. I prefer horses who don’t take the Louisiana route and I’ll drop them even faster if they don’t win one of those preps. However, I am a huge fan of Dallas Stewart’s horses in the Derby seeing as he finished second in the race with Golden Soul (2013) and Commanding Curve (2014). Stewart is high on his horse and praises his workouts so he could be a nice sleeper horse for those who see potential with this horse.
Allison:
Tom's Ready (More Than Ready - Goodbye Stranger, by Broad Brush) - Tom's Ready is a longshot for sure. Having won only one race, he has managed to place in several G2 attempts, how that sets him up for the Kentucky Derby I've no idea. More Than Ready has shown affinity as both a turf and dirt sire, having stakes winners like Prized Icon on grass, and Verrazano on dirt. Broad Brush was successful at middle distances, so how he plays into Tom's Ready's distance abilities is yet another unknown. Dallas Stewart has had luck hitting the board with longshots in the ast, and Tom's Ready could be another. He looks very nice at Churchill, and despite his less than inspiring record he might have some impact on the race.
NYQUIST
(UNCLE MO-SEEKING GABRIELLE, by FORESTRY)
March 10, 2013
JOCKEY: Mario Gutierrez
TRAINER: Doug O’Neill
Track
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Santa Anita
|
6/5/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
1
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Good
|
Del Mar
|
8/8/15
|
Best Pal Stakes (gr.3)
|
1
|
6 ½ furlongs
|
Fast
|
Del Mar
|
9/7/15
|
Del Mar Futurity (gr.1)
|
1
|
7 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
9/26/15
|
FrontRunner Stakes (gr.1)
|
1
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Keeneland
|
10/31/15
|
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr.2)
|
1
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
2/15/16
|
San Vicente Stakes (gr.2)
|
1
|
7 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
4/2/16
|
Florida Derby (gr.1)
|
1
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Good
|
Madison:
Nyquist (Nye-quist): a hockey player for the Detroit Red Wings; a freaky good Thoroughbred owned by a Canadian hockey fan
This horse checks every box for me. But he weaved at the end of the Florida Derby, which is usually a sign of fatigue. I’m giving Mohaymen the benefit of the doubt for his Florida Derby, but I just can’t do the same for Nyquist. The Kentucky Derby is an extra furlong and he struggled near the end it seemed. However, he may have simply been bored. During his workouts at Keeneland, he has had his head cocked to the side and has’t been focusing. O’Neill wants him to be near the lead and I’m afraid he will get into a speed duel with Danzing Candy. I don’t believe Nyquist will have any trouble with the first wave of closers, but the second wave will overtake him if he isn’t on the lead too far.
Allison:
Nyquist (Uncle Mo - Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry) - There isn't much that hasn't been said about Two Year Old champ and Derby Favorite Nyquist. He's unbeaten, defeated most of the other top horses in his division, and doesn't really seem to have many flaws. Nyquist jumped from a MSW victory straight into graded company, where he swept the G2 Best Pal, G1 Del Mar Futurity, G1 FrontRunner, and G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile. As a newly turned three year old, Nyquist has clearly carried over his winning form, demolishing opponents in the G2 San Vicente and G1 Florida Derby. Looking at the family of Nyquist, we see that sire Uncle Mo, too, was the most highly regarded of his generation. Uncle Mo was a speedy yet versatile type who had an affinity for winning and a mind for competition. All of these traits are very visible in his son Nyquist. Uncle Mo has already produced three G1 Winners, a filly in Gomo, and two colts in Outwork and Nyquist. Nyquist's distaff family is mostly composed of sprinter and miler types, though how much distance limitation they have passed down to Nyquist is anyone's guess. Nyquist is clearly a very game horse, battling with opponents in several races to prove best. He also has the essential turn of foot that is so vital in the Kentucky Derby. Nyquist has faced top level horses, he can handle slow and fast paces with little effect on his own trip. Nyquist as a physical specimen is a balanced, moderately sized colt with an intelligent eye. He is a smooth mover without many of the physical quirks young horses sometimes have. Overall, Nyquist is a deserving favorite, although I'll be looking for an upset.
MOHAYMEN
(TAPIT-JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE, by DIXIE UNION)
May 2, 2013
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Track
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Belmont
|
9/19/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
1
|
6 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Aqueduct
|
11/4/15
|
Nashua Stakes (gr.2)
|
1
|
1 mile
|
Fast
|
Aqueduct
|
11/28/15
|
Remsen Stakes (gr.2)
|
1
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Fast
|
Gulfstream
|
1/30/16
|
Holy Bull Stakes (gr.2)
|
1
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Gulfstream
|
2/27/16
|
Fountain of Youth (gr.2)
|
1
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Gulfstream
|
4/2/16
|
Florida Derby (gr.1)
|
4
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Good
|
Madison:
Mohaymen is one good horse and that isn’t debatable. His performance in the Florida Derby could also be debated. I, personally, will draw a line through the Florida Derby. I believe the track condition is to blame and rain isn’t in the forecast for Louisville. Mohaymen has been working the best of all the Derby runners, although he may be too aggressive during works. He is definitely ready for the Derby. Mohaymen’s damside didn’t bode well in the longer races, but Tapit has produced winners at the classic distance. Tapit’s progeny record should benefit Mohaymen in the Derby.
Allison:
Mohaymen (Tapit - Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) - At the start of the year, Mohaymen was one of the early favorites for the Derby. Since finishing fourth to Nyquist in the Florida Derby, however, he's taken quite a beating in terms of popularity. I have resolved that the FL Derby was one bad day to his many good ones, and that it isn't worth worrying over. Mohaymen is a mature, classy horse who has enough experience under him to win the Derby. My logic for throwing out such an important race as the Florida Derby is that Mohaymen got a significantly different trip than he had in earlier races, he sat up on the pace rather than rating, and made his move a little earlier in hopes of catching Nyquist. This backfired, as Mohaymen struggled to sidle alongside Nyquist before dropping the bit and flattening out to finish fourth. Another factor in the less than pleasing performance was the track condition, due to prior heavy rains it had been listed as sealed, which Mohaymen had never run on before. I think it confused him and with the class test Nyquist presented he got a little overwhelmed and just quit running. Knowing this it still paints him an unlikely winner of the Derby, surely if he's intimidated by one classy horse, then nineteen more won't bode too well. Mohaymen seems to have rebounded off that effort though and as he trains I've noticed that he's put on some weight, gained some energy, and he's moving quite well over Churchill's track, which was a question mark for me. Tapit, as discussed, is a sire who produces all types, so it's difficult to tell what kind Mohaymen will be. Though some in Mohaymen's distaff family struggled as the races grew longer, Mohaymen is built for classic distances and certainly has the mindset to handle the fanfare of the Derby. The cross of Northern Dancer lined mares with Tapit has produced stakes winners Frosted and Tapizar, among others. Mohaymen is an average sized athletic colt with a lot of balance. When he runs, he is a smooth, efficient runner who doesn't appear to have many flaws. Overall, I don't think it's worth giving up on him just yet, I have liked this horse since his maiden race and what I saw there still seems to be flourishing in the colt.
SHAGAF
(BERNARDINI-MUHAAWARA, by UNBRIDLED’S SONG)
February 5, 2013
JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz
TRAINER: Chad Brown
Track
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Aqueduct
|
11/22/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
1st
|
1 mile
|
Fast
|
Gulfstream
|
1/29/16
|
Allowance Optional Claiming
|
1st
|
1 mile
|
Fast
|
Aqueduct
|
3/5/16
|
Gotham Stakes (gr.3)
|
1st
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Aqueduct
|
4/9/16
|
Wood Memorial Stakes (gr.1)
|
5th
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Muddy
|
Madison:
I never understood the hype about this colt. I still don’t. He won the Gotham Stakes over a tiring Laoban going 1 1/16 miles before finishing fifth in the 1 ⅛ mile Wood Memorial Stakes. What worries me the most about Shagaf is his fifth place finish. The Wood Memorial was a weak field, especially since a maiden finished second. Yes, it was an off-track but Bernardini foals do well on those types of tracks. While Shagaf is bred for stamina, I don’t see him getting the 1 ¼ miles distance. He faded in 1 ⅛ miles and the added distance won’t be helping his case any.
Allison:
Shagaf (Bernardini - Muhaawara, by Unbridled's Song) - If there ever was a horse that I couldn't read, it would be Shagaf. Four starts, three wins, and extremely slow times. Shagaf is clearly a later maturing type of horse, but with one race as a two year old I'm starting to think that he's not quite ready for a race of this caliber. However, I will say that Shagaf most definitely is a distance lover, given that he's won at a mile and a mile and a sixteenth. His problem, as highlighted by his dismal fifth place in the Wood Memorial, is speed. He just doesn't have enough speed to get out of the gate quick and settle in a decent position to do anything substantial. Shagaf does seem comfortable closing from different positions, so if he can get a good spot early he might be able to upset the balance of things. Bernardini was one of my favorite horses, just to admire even. He won the Preakness, Jim Dandy, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup as a three year old. No distance questions there. Many of Bernardini's progeny prefer to run longer as later developing horses, Shagaf fits right in with them. As a physical specimen, Shagaf resembles Bernardini, with scope and balance to his body. He gets over the ground with a low stretched running style, and he doesn't seem to mind taking dirt in his face when behind horses. Again, the only things I dislike about Shagaf are his lack of foundation as a juvenile, and whether he has enough speed to be able to get involved late in the Derby.
MOR SPIRIT
(ESKENDEREYA-IM A DIXIE GIRL, by DIXIE UNION)
April 1, 2013
JOCKEY: Gary Stevens
TRAINER: Bob Baffert
Track
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Santa Anita
|
9/27/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
2
|
6 ½ furlongs
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
10/23/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
1
|
1 mile
|
Fast
|
Churchill
|
11/28/15
|
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr.2)
|
2
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Sloppy
|
Los Alamitos
|
12/9/15
|
Los Alamitos Futurity (gr.2)
|
1
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
2/6/16
|
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr.1)
|
1
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
3/12/16
|
San Felipe Stakes (gr.2)
|
2
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
4/9/16
|
Santa Anita Derby (gr.1)
|
2
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Sloppy
|
Madison:
Upon first glance, I was ready to criticize Baffert for his long(ish) campaign. However, with closer examination, I find Mor Spirit’s record to be quite impressive. He has continued to prove his skills on a consistent basis. I really liked Mor Spirit’s Santa Anita Derby, though I would’ve prefered Stevens to had made his move a bit earlier. Either way, there was no touching Exaggerator in that race. Mor Spirit ran second at Churchill Downs on a sloppy track, which I find to be a huge upside. I see Mor Spirit being quite a contender on May 7th. I’m not sure how the 17th post will affect him, but at 12-1, I’ll take him all day.
Allison:
Mor Spirit (Eskendereya - I'm A Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union) - If there ever was a horse so unlike another, it would be American Pharoah and Mor Spirit. However, trainer Bob Baffert seems to have deciphered each to train them to their best. Mor Spirit has never finished worse than second, a tremendous feat given his record. Out of seven starts, Mor Spirit has won a MSW, a G3 and a G1. Mor Spirit is a horse who likes to settle off the pace, though he can sit closer if asked. Mor Spirit, unlike many of his rivals, is a grinder, who needs at least an eighth of a mile to hit his best stride, from which point he can wear down pretty much anyone. Eskendereya isn't an extremely popular sire, but he has enjoyed success as a racehorse, winning the Fountain Of Youth and Wood Memorial. With a long reaching stride, Mor Spirit can make up a great deal of ground in a short time, which is extremely favorable in a Derby horse. Mor Spirit is a long bodied individual with a muscular neck and sloping shoulder. He's an athlete for sure, though he looks and moves more like A.P. Indy in that he's extremely talented if not especially flashy. With Gary Stevens in the irons, and Bob Baffert conditioning, Mor Spirit might become yet another notch in the belt of these revered connections. My one concern is that given Mor Spirit's slow acceleration, he may not be able to get into the clear fast enough to make an impact on the Derby outcome.
MAJESTO
(TIZNOW-UNACLOUD, by UNACCOUNTED FOR)
April 28, 2016
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Track
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Belmont
|
10/11/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
3
|
7 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Gulfstream
|
12/12/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
2
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Gulfstream
|
1/9/16
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
6
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Fast
|
Gulfstream
|
2/6/16
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
3
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Fast
|
Gulfstream
|
2/27/16
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
1
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Gulfstream
|
4/2/16
|
Florida Derby (gr.2)
|
2
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Good
|
Madison:
Majesto is one of, if not the, most confusing horses in this race. He ran 6, 3 and 2 in a 1 ⅛ miles race and won a 1 1/16 miles. He looked good in the Florida Derby at 1 ⅛ miles so maybe he does like the distance. His sire is Tiznow, a winner at 1 1/16 miles and 1 ⅛ miles. Tiznow definitely has the stamina that Derby horses need. Majesto’s dam foaled Overanalyze, who was eleventh in the Kentucky Derby. Majesto has gotten nothing but praise at Churchill Downs and I am hoping for a good run from him in the Derby.
Allison:
Majesto (Tiznow - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) - I initially thought of Majesto as a horse who didn't belong with this batch, but now that I appraise him I see why he's becoming popular. Majesto has a beautiful pedigree, with classic sire Tiznow on top and classic runner Unaccounted For on the bottom. It's an unusual cross that hasn't brought much to the table in terms of talent, but Majesto might be one of those few that turns out better than the rest of his family. Majesto is a long winded horse who will appreciate the Derby distance, and having faced several different race scenarios before should certainly help him. While there isn't much to go on based on race record and pedigree, Majesto is training very well and I have heard nothing but glowing reports from those who have seen him. Majesto is a nice price if you want to use a longshot, he might be your boy.
BRODY’S CAUSE
(GIANT’S CAUSEWAY-STREET BREANNA, by SAHM)
March 17, 2013
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Dale Romans
Track
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Ellis
|
8/1/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
8
|
1 mile
|
Firm (T)
|
Churchill
|
9/11/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
1
|
1 mile
|
Fast
|
Keeneland
|
10/3/15
|
Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (gr.1)
|
1
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Muddy
|
Keeneland
|
10/31/15
|
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr.1)
|
3
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Tampa Bay
|
3/12/16
|
Tampa Bay Derby (gr.2)
|
7
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Keeneland
|
4/9/16
|
Blue Grass Stakes (gr.1)
|
1
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Fast
|
Madison:
Brody’s Cause was not a factor in the Tampa Bay Derby but then came back to win the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He won a maiden special weight at Churchill in October. I honestly see Brody’s Cause being the new Tonalist because he completely excels at Keeneland. Post nineteen will hurt the colt because Danzing Candy is to his outside. I’m pretty sure we all expect Danzing Candy to cut across the field to get straight to the lead. His sire, Giant’s Causeway, finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic to Tiznow. Brody’s Cause’s dam, Street Breanna, is a multiple stakes placed runner and produced Midnight Sweetie (by Midnight Lute), a 2010 stakes placed horse.
Allison:
Destin (Giant's Causeway - Dream Of Summer, by Siberian Summer) - It came as a bit of a shock when trainer Todd Pletcher announced that Destin would train up to the Derby off of his Tampa Bay Derby victory, but digging deeper we see the reason why. The speed figures for Destin's TB Derby were quite higher than anticipated, and therefore the connections made the tough call to lay low going into the
Derby. Had they run another prep race, they would have risked going to Louisville with a horse who was only fifty percent ready. This way is better, although it's still a risky move considering that the horse might be "too" fresh now. Crazier things have been done to win Derbies, though, and since Todd Pletcher has done it before, I trust his judgment enough to give Destin his props. Out of five starts, Destin has nicked three wins, a second, and a fourth. Not bad considering that these races were run at four different tracks. Already we know Destin is fast, and a good traveler, two promising aspects. Destin too, has only won at a mile and a sixteenth as his longest race. However, there's more foundation from his pedigree to support him handling extra distance. Giant's Causeway is able to produce distance runners, this is already a fact. Turning to his dam, Dream Of Summer, we see she was a stakes winner, winning races up to a mile and a sixteenth, and placing at a mile and an eighth. As a broodmare, her most highly regarded foal is undoubtedly Destin's full brother Creative Cause. Creative Cause won the Best Pal and Norfolk stakes as a two year old, then proceeded to win the San Felipe stakes before placing behind I'll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby. He went on to finish fifth and third in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, respectively, before retirement. While Creative Cause and Destin may share similarities via pedigree, physically they're about as similar as an apple and an orange. Where Creative Cause was a long lean horse, Destin is heavily muscled, with a strong shoulder. While he is still slightly green, which isn't all that alarming given his track record, he is still an interesting prospect. I expect Destin to be finishing in the top five, whether or not he makes it to the winners' circle we will have to wait and see.
DANZING CANDY
(TWIRLING CANDY-TALKIN AND SINGING, by SONGANDAPRAYER)
April 6, 2013
JOCKEY: Mike Smith
TRAINER: Clifford Sise
Track
|
Date
|
Race Type
|
Finish
|
Distance
|
Condition
|
Del Mar
|
11/29/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
8th
|
6.5 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
12/26/15
|
Maiden Special Weight
|
1st
|
7 furlongs
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
2/4/16
|
Allowance Optional Claiming
|
1st
|
1 mile
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
3/12/16
|
San Felipe Stakes (gr.2)
|
1st
|
1 1/16 miles
|
Fast
|
Santa Anita
|
4/9/16
|
Santa Anita Derby (gr.1)
|
4th
|
1 ⅛ miles
|
Sloppy
|
Madison:
In the San Felipe Stakes, Danzing Candy pulled away from the field around the first turn and would’ve kept going had Mike Smith held him in. Coming around the second turn, it looked as though Exaggerator was going to take over the lead. Danzing Candy fought back and won by an easily three-fourths length. While visually impressive, the Twirling Candy colt will not get that easy of a trip in the Derby. He barely held off Mor Spirit and will have at least six more closers thrown at him on May 7th. Danzing Candy is not bred to get 1 ¼ miles. Twirling Candy won at 1 ⅛ miles while Talkin and Singing wasn’t even able to pull of a maiden win. Danzing Candy’s damsire, Songandaprayer, won the Fountain of Youth at 1 1/16 miles in his lone graded swin.
Allison:
Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy - Talkin and Singing, by Songandaprayer) - Since his victory in the San Felipe, common opinions of Danzing Candy are revolving around him being a speed horse who won't be able to get the distance of the Derby. However, evidence of his pedigree suggests that he may be able to run beyond many expectations. Sire Twirling Candy was a a well performing horse on all counts, running third and second in several mile and a quarter races. Talkin and Singing won at a mile and a sixteenth on the Polytrack, but never started on dirt. However, the majority of the facts do support Danzing Candy being best at a mile and an eighth or under. He is definitely a pace horse, with a lot of early speed. In the past, he's been able to burn out rivals by setting grueling fractions early, something that will ultimately ruin him in the Derby. Danzing Candy will also get a class test, though perhaps not as devastating as it will be for some. Danzing Candy has never won beyond a mile and a sixteenth, which obviously is somewhat concerning. Danzing Candy still seems a little immature, so how he will handle the chaotic Derby scene remains to be seen. He's a lean bodied horse who isn't overly muscular, he's a very smooth mover as well. Toss him if you dare, but remember horses like California Chrome and American Pharoah both had high cruising speeds as well, so if you need justification for choosing him, there's an argument.
Well there you have it folks! A huge thanks to Allison for helping with this blog and I apologize for the briefness of my comments. It's testing season for me and the Derby snuck up on me. I promise, the Preakness and Belmont blogs will be much better.
